Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:48:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AE 0xaef5…b62e crypto 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate85%45W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$6
crypto 11% +$2
politics 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 53 +0.1% -9.4% 85% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses45 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage524d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $66 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? May 05 $54 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in February? Mar 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Feb 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $33 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Jan 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? Jan 02 $66 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? Dec 03 $54 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Nov 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? Nov 03 $39 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 03 $55 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? Sep 01 $36 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? Aug 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will US leave NATO by June 30? Jul 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? Jun 23 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 02 $3 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? May 02 $4 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 02 $6 $0 +1%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 02 $7 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.70 in April? May 02 $7 $0 +2%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2025? Apr 10 $6,078 −$6 -0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 03 $3 $0 +2%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 24 $34 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Mar 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will Chrystia Freeland be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Mar 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series? Mar 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 160-179 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.25 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 by February 28 2025? 1 Mar 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $300 by January 31, 2025? Feb 05 $8 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Jan 24-31? Feb 05 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $63 1h
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $23 29d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $44 31d
Will Solana reach $130 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 61d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? BUY No 99¢ $54 62d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $8 91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $16 91d
Will Solana reach $140 in March? BUY No 100¢ $36 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $6 121d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $17 122d
Will Solana reach $200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $45 122d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 149d
Will Solana reach $210 in January? BUY No 100¢ $25 151d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 99¢ $33 151d
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $2 180d
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 181d
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $7 212d
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? BUY No 100¢ $54 212d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $18 242d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? BUY No 99¢ $39 242d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $16 272d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $39 273d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $17 301d
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? BUY No 100¢ $36 302d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $7 332d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 100¢ $14 333d
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? BUY No 100¢ $43 334d
Will US leave NATO by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $24 364d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.37 · official $63.37 (match) · 111 history records