Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:52:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AE 0xaef6…9791 crypto 404 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$68 (-1%) realized −$55 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%385W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day34.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$35
14 days−$72
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$50
politics 2% −$37
other 2% +$1
finance 1% $0
sports 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 260 -0.7% -10.1% 97% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 400 -0.9% -10.3% 96% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 400 -0.9% -10.3% 96% 0% -10.7%
all 400 -0.9% -10.3% 96% 0% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 0% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 0% -19.2%
15% -26.7% 0% -27.0%
20% -33.9% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$15 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$55
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses385 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)400 / 404
History coverage12d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day34.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 400 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Up 94¢ 98¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Down 98¢ 8¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$1 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $14 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 17? Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $14 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $15 40m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $12 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 4h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $15 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.55 · official $50.55 (match) · 797 history records