Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaef6…7b7a other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-3%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate53%20W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$2
other 23% +$2
politics 11% $0
crypto 10% −$1
sports 8% −$3
economics 3% $0
culture 2% +$1
finance 2% −$12
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -0.6% -10.1% 38% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 8 -0.6% -10.1% 38% 0% -10.3%
all 38 -7.9% -16.7% 53% 3% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 3% -12.1%
10% -24.7% 3% -20.5%
15% -31.9% 0% -28.2%
20% -38.6% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses20 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage470d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $18 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $35 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $16 −$1 -9%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $42 −$3 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $42 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $39 +$4 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 27 $2 $0 +3%
10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday? Jun 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 06 $12 $0 +4%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $9 +$1 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 19 $10 $0 -1%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 15 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? Apr 14 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Apr 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? Apr 09 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Apr 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 07 $11 $0 +1%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the Hart Trophy? Apr 05 $11 $0 -1%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 31 $12 −$1 -4%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Mar 27 $2 −$1 -50%
Playboi Carti's "MUSIC" debuts at #1 on Billboard 200? Mar 26 $13 +$1 +6%
Robert Morris vs. Alabama Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 19 $16 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 7? Mar 11 $17 +$1 +3%
Will Benfica win on 2025-03-05? Mar 06 $14 +$5 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $36 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $3 22d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $15 22d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $18 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 73¢ $31 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 73¢ $2 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 76¢ $35 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 30¢ $14 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 30¢ $0 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 33¢ $16 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $38 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $38 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $39 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $42 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 75¢ $43 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 74¢ $42 24d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 26d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 26d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 26d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 27d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 27d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 27d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 79¢ $43 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 72¢ $39 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 97¢ $2 355d
10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday? BUY No 99¢ $12 376d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? BUY No 96¢ $12 378d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? BUY No 99¢ $1 389d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL Yes 3¢ $0 403d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.75 · official $37.75 (match) · 102 history records