Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:14:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AE
0xaef9…9b3d
sports · 132 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$924 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$963 · open −$97
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,329
Realized+$963
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses69 / 44
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions19
Markets (closed)113 / 132
History coverage6d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 19 History 113 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$427
7 days+$963
14 days+$963
30 days+$963
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $136 $135 −$1 (-1%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? No 78¢ 78¢ $115 $115 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $102 $102 −$1 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Bo Nickal 74¢ 72¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 67¢ 70¢ $89 $94 +$5 (+5%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 50¢ 50¢ $89 $88 −$1 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Qinwen Zheng 61¢ 60¢ $87 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $81 $80 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $73 $73 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 68¢ $69 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 63¢ $61 $63 +$2 (+3%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 54¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $56 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 52¢ 52¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 81¢ 40¢ $73 $36 −$37 (-51%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 50¢ 15¢ $97 $29 −$68 (-70%)
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Yes 37¢ 30¢ $20 $16 −$3 (-18%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Over 53¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Boston Red Sox 42¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Houston Astros 54¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Game Handicap: FSK (-1.5) vs PCIFIC (+1.5) Forsaken 44¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Gauthier Onclin 38¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $41 +$85 +206%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $53 +$70 +134%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $89 +$39 +44%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $75 +$48 +65%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $97 +$17 +17%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $75 +$85 +114%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $103 +$20 +20%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $52 +$58 +111%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $89 +$108 +122%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $73 +$38 +52%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $64 +$59 +93%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $76 −$75 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $82 −$81 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $70 −$69 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $60 −$59 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $106 +$121 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $68 +$34 +50%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $68 −$67 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $56 +$2 +3%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $60 −$59 -99%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $30 +$34 +114%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $18 +$18 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $124 +$56 +46%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $275 +$31 +11%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $51 +$40 +79%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $41 +$27 +67%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $51 −$51 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $256 +$46 +18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $56 +$30 +52%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $289 +$35 +12%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $66 +$37 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $68 +$39 +57%
Tucuman: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Jun 11 $51 +$20 +40%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $95 +$39 +42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $84 +$18 +21%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $115 −$115 -100%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $41 +$13 +32%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 11 $49 +$23 +48%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $53 +$51 +97%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $50 −$49 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $24 +$39 +163%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $36 −$2 -4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $40 −$4 -9%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $104 +$57 +55%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $48 +$75 +158%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $65 +$58 +90%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $87 +$139 +159%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $74 +$96 +129%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $60 +$63 +105%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $75 +$48 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 77% +$734
other 19% +$242
world 2% −$69
politics 1% −$37
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Qinwen Zheng 61¢ $88 1h
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 20¢ $28 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $103 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $136 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $90 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 78¢ $115 9h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 32¢ $41 17h
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner BUY BALU 45¢ $15 17h
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner BUY BALU 45¢ $74 17h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 46¢ $75 17h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 53¢ $76 19h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 69¢ $89 19h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 50¢ $13 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 50¢ $84 20h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 47¢ $21 20h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 47¢ $1 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 51¢ $59 20h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 47¢ $1 20h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 47¢ $29 20h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Spirit 65¢ $82 20h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $73 21h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 60¢ $75 21h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 56¢ $70 21h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 61¢ $46 23h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 48¢ $60 23h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 51¢ $64 23h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 61¢ $24 23h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $57 35h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $90 35h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 46¢ $0 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 +11.1% +0.5% 61% 60% +4.0%
≤30d 113 +11.1% +0.5% 61% 60% +4.0%
≤90d 113 +11.1% +0.5% 61% 60% +4.0%
all 113 +11.1% +0.5% 61% 60% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.5% 60% +4.0%
10% ← realistic here -9.1% 51% -6.0%
15% -17.9% 48% -15.0%
20% -25.9% 40% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,329.46 · official $1,332.38 (match) · 243 history records