Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:41:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AE
0xaef9…0341
crypto · 100 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$366 -41%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$303 · open −$58
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$28
Realized−$303
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses36 / 54
Open positions10
Markets (closed)90 / 100
History coverage761d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 10 History 90 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ $65 $15 −$50 (-77%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-58%)
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes $4 $3 −$1 (-33%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 51¢ 17¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-67%)
Solana all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -57%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +56%
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? May 25 $2 $0 -14%
Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Challe Apr 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 16 $1 $0 -0%
StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 16 $1 +$1 +103%
Space FDV above $5M one day after launch? Mar 31 $1 $0 -6%
US national Ethereum reserve in 2025? Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Doge ETF approved by July 31? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum all time high by December 31? Mar 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Mar 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Feb 25 $26 +$2 +8%
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? Feb 25 $5 $0 -2%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 23 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Feb 15 $16 −$6 -35%
Will March be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Feb 12 $3 −$1 -43%
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? Feb 09 $126 −$71 -56%
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? Jan 31 $63 −$32 -51%
Kraken IPO in 2025? Dec 04 $1 −$1 -90%
Solana all time high before 2026? Nov 07 $115 −$84 -73%
Linea airdrop in Q3 2025? Aug 16 $1 $0 +9%
Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? Jul 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Pump.fun >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Jul 09 $1 $0 -25%
Ethereum above $2,400 on June 27? Jul 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana ETF approved in 2025? Jul 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Pump.fun airdrop in Q3 2025? Jun 25 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Jun 25 $1 $0 +30%
Ethereum all time high before 2026? May 21 $14 +$12 +85%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 09 $74 −$64 -87%
OpenSea airdrop before April? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31? Feb 13 $70 −$57 -82%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 by March 31? Feb 03 $10 −$8 -80%
Abstract token launch by January 31? Feb 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Linea airdrop in 2024? Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kraken IPO in 2024? Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
OpenSea token >1 billion a week after launch? Jan 02 $2 $0 -21%
Will Ethereum hit $4,100.00 in December? Dec 06 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first? Dec 05 $5 +$2 +49%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Dec 04 $102 +$13 +13%
Will Hyperliquid not launch a token in 2024? Dec 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2024? Nov 28 $1 −$1 -68%
Solana ETF approved in 2024? Nov 28 $1 $0 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 91% −$344
other 5% −$16
sports 1% +$4
tech 1% $0
economics 1% −$1
world 0% −$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 14m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 15m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 5h
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 43h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 43h
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 16d
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 16d
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 17d
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 17d
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 19d
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 20d
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 20d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 59d
Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Challe BUY ALKA 98¢ $1 59d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 59d
StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 67¢ $2 59d
Space FDV above $5M one day after launch? SELL Yes 68¢ $1 74d
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 79d
Solana all time high by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 85d
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 88d
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -52.3% -56.9% 20% 20% -64.8%
≤30d 6 -45.9% -51.0% 17% 17% -56.0%
≤90d 16 -48.5% -53.4% 19% 12% -82.8%
all 90 -17.4% -25.3% 40% 30% -44.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 30% -44.8%
10% -32.4% 22% -50.1%
15% -38.9% 17% -54.9%
20% -44.9% 16% -59.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.43 · official $28.43 (match) · 281 history records