Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:41:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaefb…c183 sports 154 markets active 4d ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate68%105W / 49L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 37% −$6
tech 37% −$7
other 25% −$6
sports 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 107 -3.9% -13.0% 62% 42% -9.7%
all 154 +1.7% -8.0% 68% 48% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 48% -9.6%
10% -16.8% 14% -18.3%
15% -24.8% 4% -26.2%
20% -32.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses105 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)154 / 154
History coverage104d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 154 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Valorant: GIANTX vs Fnatic (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Apr 25 $1 $0 +36%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 23 $301 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 23 $564 −$1 -0%
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Pcific Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Apr 23 $1 $0 +36%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr Apr 22 $201 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 22 $201 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs XI Esport (BO3) - European Pro League R Apr 22 $1 $0 +27%
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs CSGOPOSITIVE (BO3) - Exort Series Main Stag Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 21 $643 −$1 -0%
Valorant: Eternal Fire Passion vs Dark Passage (BO3) - VCL Türkiye: Bi Apr 21 $1 $0 +24%
Valorant: Barça eSports vs FALKE ESPORTS (BO5) - VCL Spain: Rising Pha Apr 21 $1 $0 +32%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 20 $98 $0 -0%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 20 $1 $0 +21%
LoL: Bohemian Guardians vs Onion Team (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Apr 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 19 $648 −$1 -0%
LoL: Meavedron vs NightBirds (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Season Apr 19 $1 $0 +1%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 19 $1 $0 +17%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 18 $545 −$1 -0%
LoL: Bohemian Guardians vs eSuba (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Seas Apr 18 $1 $0 +4%
LoL: Kaufland Hangry Knights vs Eintracht Spandau (BO1) - Prime League Apr 18 $1 $0 +29%
LoL: UB Alma Mater vs Barça eSports (BO3) - LES Regular Season Apr 17 $1 $0 +4%
LoL: VfB eSports vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO1) - Prime League Apr 17 $1 $0 +16%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 16 $441 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 16 $1 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs Sinners (BO1) - Conquest of Prague Online Apr 16 $1 $0 +23%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $1 $0 +8%
LoL: GLORE vs DOCISK (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season Apr 15 $1 $0 +36%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 14 $237 $0 -0%
Valorant: baigiau vs Enterprise Esports (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST Group Apr 14 $1 $0 +7%
Valorant: UNIWAY vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST Group Apr 14 $1 $0 +16%
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs VR2 (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST Group B Apr 13 $1 $0 +10%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Formulation Gaming (BO3) - VCL NORTH// Apr 13 $1 $0 +17%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 12 $478 $0 -0%
Valorant: Nuxeria Esport vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL France: Revolution S Apr 12 $1 $0 +16%
Valorant: baigiau vs Bonk (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST Group A Apr 12 $1 $0 +24%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 11 $101 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Ølgod Efterskole vs SAW (BO1) - Parken Challenger Cham Apr 11 $1 $0 +23%
Counter-Strike: WAZABI vs AaB Esport (BO1) - Parken Challenger Champio Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs LUA Gaming (BO3) - LES Regular Season Apr 10 $1 $0 +4%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 10 $1 $0 +6%
LoL: FALKE Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - LES Regular Season Apr 09 $1 $0 +6%
LoL: Lodis vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season Apr 09 $1 $0 +16%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Acend (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Playoffs Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: T1 Academy vs DRX Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs MVK Esports (BO3) - LCP Regular Season Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: S2G Esports vs Frites Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group F Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs BASEMENT BOYS (BO1) - BC Game Masters Ch Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs enjoy boys (BO3) - Tennisi Stampede Champion Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 4d
Valorant: GIANTX vs Fnatic (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega BUY Fnatic 73¢ $1 55d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL No 100¢ $101 55d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $101 55d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $101 55d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $101 55d
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Pcific Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega BUY Eternal Fire 73¢ $1 56d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr SELL No 100¢ $99 56d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr BUY No 100¢ $99 56d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $99 56d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $99 56d
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs CSGOPOSITIVE (BO3) - Exort Series Main Stag BUY aimclub 93¢ $1 57d
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs XI Esport (BO3) - European Pro League R BUY BIG Academy 78¢ $1 57d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL No 100¢ $102 57d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $102 57d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $102 57d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $102 57d
Valorant: Barça eSports vs FALKE ESPORTS (BO5) - VCL Spain: Rising Pha BUY Barça eSports 75¢ $1 57d
Valorant: Eternal Fire Passion vs Dark Passage (BO3) - VCL Türkiye: Bi BUY Eternal Fire Passion 80¢ $1 57d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL No 100¢ $98 57d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $98 57d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $98 57d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $98 57d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 82¢ $1 59d
LoL: Bohemian Guardians vs Onion Team (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular BUY Onion Team 80¢ $1 59d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr SELL No 100¢ $102 59d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr BUY No 100¢ $102 59d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $102 59d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $102 59d
LoL: Meavedron vs NightBirds (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Season BUY NightBirds 99¢ $1 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 410 history records