Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:51:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AE 0xaefd…ae0a crypto 380 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$547 (-11%) realized −$504 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate47%169W / 191L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$545now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$78
7 days−$187
14 days−$90
30 days−$504
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$443
other 30% −$147
sports 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 -16.0% -24.0% 47% 37% -22.2%
≤30d 348 -15.4% -23.5% 47% 39% -22.5%
≤90d 360 -15.4% -23.5% 47% 39% -21.6%
all 360 -15.4% -23.5% 47% 39% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.5% 39% -21.6%
10% ← realistic here -30.8% 32% -29.1%
15% -37.5% 28% -36.0%
20% -43.6% 25% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$545
Realized−$504
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses169 / 191
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions20
Markets (closed)360 / 380
History coverage38d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 360 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 90¢ $46 $45 −$2 (-4%)
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-2%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 84¢ $40 $42 +$1 (+3%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $36 $34 −$2 (-6%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 95¢ $19 $29 +$10 (+56%)
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 40¢ $8 $20 +$11 (+132%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 86¢ $9 $17 +$8 (+97%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 84¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+4%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+24%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 8¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-89%)
Will Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa Pessoa be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$39 (-99%)
Will Tim Payne be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 161 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -95%
Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Memphis Depay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 −$1 -7%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $16 $0 -3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 15 $46 +$1 +1%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $11 −$4 -36%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 15 $11 −$4 -37%
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 15 $18 $0 -2%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $7 −$6 -81%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 15 $38 −$9 -23%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $39 +$7 +19%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $46 −$13 -29%
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $40 −$3 -7%
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $43 −$3 -8%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 15 $36 +$10 +29%
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $42 +$3 +8%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $48 −$1 -3%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $47 $0 +1%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 15 $48 $0 +1%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $94 +$2 +2%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 13 $4 +$1 +29%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $34 +$16 +47%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Memphis Depay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa Pessoa be the top goalscorer at t SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $19 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $16 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 SELL Yes 66¢ $13 1h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 51¢ $7 1h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 36¢ $7 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL Yes 35¢ $17 1h
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL Yes 15¢ $29 1h
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 25¢ $31 1h
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 55¢ $33 1h
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $37 1h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 78¢ $39 1h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 80¢ $40 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 92¢ $46 1h
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 92¢ $46 1h
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 94¢ $47 1h
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 95¢ $47 1h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 96¢ $48 1h
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 98¢ $49 1h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 49¢ $48 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $544.54 · official $544.54 (match) · 1026 history records