Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:22:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AE 0xaeff…725f other 37 markets active 13h ago coverage 166d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$78 (+24%) realized +$78 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +39% what you keep after slip
Net edge+39%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate62%18W / 11L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$50
14 days+$55
30 days+$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$134
sports 7% +$7
politics 5% −$1
world 3% −$5
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+39.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +107.2% +87.5% 86% 86% +59.7%
≤30d 10 +95.3% +76.7% 90% 90% +56.9%
≤90d 19 +64.6% +48.9% 68% 68% +41.4%
all 29 +53.9% +39.3% 62% 59% +33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +39.3% 59% +33.1%
10% +25.9% 55% +20.4%
15% +13.8% 52% +8.7%
20% +2.6% 41% -1.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +56% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +78% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.85 per $1 lost it wins $3.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses18 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)29 / 37
History coverage166d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 19¢ $10 $14 +$3 (+34%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $10 $7 −$2 (-24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-9%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-1 Jun 19 $10 +$23 +223%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND Jun 19 $5 +$15 +287%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$12 +119%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? May 29 $4 +$4 +78%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 27 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $5 +$1 +26%
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? May 17 $3 +$2 +67%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 05 $9 −$5 -63%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $18 −$1 -4%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $14 +$26 +194%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $39 +$29 +75%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Apr 07 $21 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 23 $5 −$1 -19%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? Mar 18 $13 −$6 -50%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 18 $5 −$1 -20%
Will the Bills win the AFC Championship? Feb 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 26 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 26 $5 +$10 +191%
Will the Seahawks win the 2026 NFC Championship? Jan 26 $10 +$15 +157%
Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship? Jan 26 $6 +$14 +239%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 14 $6 $0 +4%
Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship? Jan 13 $9 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? AN BUY 33¢ $3 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will United States win on 2026-06- BUY 18¢ $2 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-1 BUY 30¢ $10 36h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 25¢ $5 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 43¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 34¢ $5 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 45¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 8d
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $8 22d
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 30d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 33d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 33d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 33d
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 34d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 34d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 34d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 34d
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? BUY Yes $3 35d
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? BUY Yes $0 35d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 45d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 11¢ $17 67d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 69d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.14 · official $41.14 · 194 history records