Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:25:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xaf03…b6ce
world · 68 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$10 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses27 / 40
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage522d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 1 History 67 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$9
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? No 95¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? No 69¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+44%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $108 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $109 +$10 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $81 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $174 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $54 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $52 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $98 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $115 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $31 −$1 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $110 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $56 −$2 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $78 +$2 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $4 +$1 +36%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $55 +$2 +3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $43 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $15 $0 -1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $157 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $49 $0 +1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $2 $0 -2%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $48 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $99 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $44 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $2 $0 +14%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $2 $0 -7%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $2 $0 -8%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $116 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $2 $0 -8%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 10 $18 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 09 $2 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 07 $94 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 04 $43 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $48 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $48 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 42% +$16
politics 23% +$1
other 21% −$6
sports 9% −$7
economics 6% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 4h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $39 10h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $16 10h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $9 14h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $45 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $49 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $14 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $60 20h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $41 27h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $41 29h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 37h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 37h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 37h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 41h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $34 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $21 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $17 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $36 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $19 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $19 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $16 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $4 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $16 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $19 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $14 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $40 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $40 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.1% -7.7% 75% 0% -7.5%
≤30d 20 +150.0% +126.2% 70% 15% -8.4%
≤90d 65 +46.1% +32.2% 42% 6% -9.0%
all 67 +41.8% +28.3% 40% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.3% 6% -9.4%
10% +16.0% 4% -18.1%
15% +4.8% 4% -26.0%
20% -5.5% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.69 · official $0.00 (match) · 338 history records