Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:51:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xaf03…8740
other · 8 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$24 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$24 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$28
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage26d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%
Chart Positions 2 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16 +$13 +82%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $24 −$23 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 68% +$7
world 20% −$23
crypto 7% −$8
sports 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $14 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $14 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 55¢ $28 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $29 4h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 7h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $6 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 54¢ $16 9h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 5d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 0¢ $8 23d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 24d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-58.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -45.1% -50.4% 20% 20% -12.6%
≤30d 6 -54.3% -58.6% 17% 17% -45.8%
≤90d 6 -54.3% -58.6% 17% 17% -45.8%
all 6 -54.3% -58.6% 17% 17% -45.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.6% 17% -45.8%
10% -62.6% 17% -50.9%
15% -66.2% 17% -55.7%
20% -69.5% 17% -60.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.67 · official $27.68 (match) · 14 history records