Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:46:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AF 0xaf03…4537 crypto 847 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$382 (-2%) realized −$386 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate83%704W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$8
14 days−$52
30 days−$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$510
sports 0% −$12
other 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +6.0% -4.1% 69% 46% -11.9%
≤30d 329 -3.2% -12.4% 88% 14% -13.3%
≤90d 846 -3.4% -12.6% 83% 17% -12.3%
all 846 -3.4% -12.6% 83% 17% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 17% -12.3%
10% -21.0% 7% -20.7%
15% -28.6% 2% -28.4%
20% -35.6% 1% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$386
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses704 / 142
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)846 / 847
History coverage74d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 846 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 32¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $31 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$8 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$4 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 06 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 06 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 06 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 06 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 06 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 06 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 06 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 06 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 06 $22 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 06 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 06 $24 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 06 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 06 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 06 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 06 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 06 $32 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 06 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 06 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 06 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 06 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 06 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 06 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 06 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 9m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 9m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 35m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 36m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 36m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 37m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 37m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 38m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $6 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $9 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $9 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.27 · official $9.27 (match) · 2183 history records