Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:10:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AF 0xaf03…9db4 other 86 markets active 0h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$349 (+2%) realized +$358 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate67%53W / 26L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$264per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,446now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$504
7 days−$564
14 days−$408
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$484
other 26% −$226
politics 1% −$38
tech 1% +$9
weather 0% +$3
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% +$5
economics 0% $0
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -32.3% -38.8% 29% 14% -23.7%
≤30d 13 -21.3% -28.8% 46% 23% -9.0%
≤90d 45 -8.8% -17.5% 58% 18% -8.5%
all 79 -2.7% -12.0% 67% 18% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 18% -8.4%
10% -20.4% 10% -17.2%
15% -28.1% 4% -25.2%
20% -35.2% 3% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$39 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$1,446
Realized+$358
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses53 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)79 / 86
History coverage239d
Avg bet$264
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? No 90¢ 88¢ $600 $590 −$10 (-2%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? Yes 76¢ 88¢ $277 $320 +$42 (+15%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 34¢ 31¢ $300 $277 −$23 (-8%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 65¢ 62¢ $200 $191 −$9 (-5%)
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? No 49¢ 41¢ $42 $35 −$7 (-17%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15? No 74¢ 64¢ $23 $20 −$3 (-14%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 87¢ 94¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 27 $1,367 −$208 -15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? Jun 27 $200 −$112 -56%
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? Jun 27 $202 −$184 -91%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 25 $407 −$170 -42%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? Jun 25 $603 +$65 +11%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? Jun 25 $803 +$49 +6%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 24 $12 −$5 -39%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $1,408 +$353 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $1,982 −$196 -10%
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral electi Jun 07 $18 −$18 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $1,900 +$88 +5%
Will the Social Democrats be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 07 $11 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1,511 +$402 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,405 +$106 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $1,430 −$57 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 24 $1,433 +$41 +3%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? May 22 $125 −$1 -1%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? May 22 $19 +$4 +22%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 22 $61 −$2 -4%
Will Navi win IEM Atlanta 2026? May 22 $13 +$9 +70%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $1,120 +$81 +7%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1,100 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary ele May 19 $19 −$3 -17%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May? May 19 $18 −$9 -49%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? May 16 $14 −$8 -58%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 16 $19 +$5 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,200 +$7 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? May 14 $26 +$2 +7%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $26 $0 -2%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 15? May 14 $18 $0 +2%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 14 $23 −$16 -70%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $1,200 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 11 $12 +$2 +20%
Will the Labour Party win control of the most London borough councils? May 11 $22 +$2 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 06 $22 +$1 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? May 06 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 30 $21 −$7 -33%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last E Apr 30 $16 $0 +3%
Will USD.AI launch a token by April 30? Apr 17 $20 +$2 +9%
Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be between Apr 17 $16 +$1 +6%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 17 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on April 1? Apr 03 $17 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 25? Apr 01 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $22 +$3 +11%
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 25 $10 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on Ma Mar 25 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 25 $21 +$1 +2%
Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026? Mar 14 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on March 2? Mar 14 $16 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? BUY No 55¢ $20 23m
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? BUY No 45¢ $22 49m
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 34¢ $308 1h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? SELL Yes 62¢ $349 1h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? BUY Yes 85¢ $480 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 65¢ $200 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 90¢ $602 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $1,159 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $88 1h
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? SELL Yes $17 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $1,367 47h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $200 47h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 58¢ $20 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? SELL Yes 96¢ $669 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL Yes 97¢ $852 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $23 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 53¢ $89 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 75¢ $129 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 41¢ $129 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $280 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? BUY Yes 91¢ $803 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $603 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 80¢ $258 3d
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? BUY Yes 78¢ $202 3d
OpenAI IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 52¢ $7 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,408 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $1,786 13d
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral electi BUY Yes 80¢ $18 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1,982 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,446.49 · official $1,446.49 (match) · 219 history records