Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:39:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf06…461e crypto 593 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$144 (+0%) realized +$144 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%584W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$523now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$58
14 days+$104
30 days+$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$85
other 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 320 +0.4% -9.1% 99% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 463 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 0% -8.7%
all 593 +0.2% -9.4% 98% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 1% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 1% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$43 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$523
Realized+$144
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses584 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)593 / 593
History coverage95d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 593 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $61 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $294 +$3 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $158 +$7 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $6 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 23 $218 +$2 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $441 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $4 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $228 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $38 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 22 $87 +$2 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $125 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $162 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $243 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $256 +$1 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $107 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $134 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 21 $189 +$2 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $209 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $110 +$1 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $208 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $209 +$2 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $284 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $90 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $39 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $17 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $75 +$3 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $175 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $238 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $42 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $240 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $240 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $240 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $240 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $240 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $240 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $240 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $241 +$4 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $24 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $212 +$2 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $19 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $61 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $294 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $158 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $441 40h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $218 40h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 42h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $228 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $38 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $87 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $243 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $162 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $125 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $256 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $209 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $134 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $189 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $107 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $110 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $208 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $209 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $284 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $90 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $39 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $17 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $75 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $238 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $175 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $17 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $522.97 · official $522.97 (match) · 1590 history records