Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:27:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AF 0xaf06…8758 sports 106 markets active 1d ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,671 (+11%) realized +$2,682 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate64%67W / 38L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day24.8pace
Fees−$304est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$80
7 days+$391
14 days+$2,115
30 days+$2,379
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$2,400
other 1% −$15
crypto 0% −$6
politics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -1.1% -10.5% 53% 53% +4.9%
≤30d 105 +6.6% -3.5% 64% 57% -0.3%
≤90d 105 +6.6% -3.5% 64% 57% -0.3%
all 105 +6.6% -3.5% 64% 57% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.5% 57% -0.3%
10% ← realistic here -12.8% 48% -9.9%
15% -21.2% 36% -18.6%
20% -28.9% 26% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$84 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$2,682
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses67 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$304
Open positions1
Markets (closed)105 / 106
History coverage19d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day24.8
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $14 $3 −$11 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $584 +$231 +40%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $75 −$37 -49%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $202 +$105 +52%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $152 −$9 -6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 20 $101 −$56 -55%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $56 −$56 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $202 −$202 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $52 −$51 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $51 +$35 +70%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $202 +$96 +48%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $180 −$8 -4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 +$20 +40%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 19 $141 +$96 +68%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $245 +$145 +59%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $51 +$36 +70%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $101 +$50 +50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $64 −$64 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $367 −$276 -75%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $284 −$249 -88%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $51 +$58 +114%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 +$74 +146%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $184 +$3 +2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,911 −$258 -9%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $798 +$158 +20%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $606 +$313 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $202 +$88 +43%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $450 +$356 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $744 +$122 +16%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $151 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $470 +$74 +16%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $374 −$342 -91%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $366 +$104 +28%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $299 +$67 +22%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $211 +$379 +180%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$34 +67%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$25 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $303 +$165 +54%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $128 +$69 +54%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $202 +$21 +10%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $237 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $51 +$39 +76%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $25 +$12 +47%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $51 +$12 +23%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,643 +$303 +18%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,174 +$117 +10%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $51 −$9 -17%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $648 +$145 +22%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $783 +$185 +24%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $496 +$60 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $815 26h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL FURIA 40¢ $5 26h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 90¢ $283 26h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL FURIA 25¢ $33 26h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 41¢ $20 27h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 53¢ $38 27h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 52¢ $17 27h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $307 27h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $202 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $142 40h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $142 41h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $158 42h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 43h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 47h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 14¢ $3 47h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 26¢ $10 47h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 31¢ $10 47h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $86 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 58¢ $51 2d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $298 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 59¢ $28 2d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $202 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 59¢ $135 2d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 68¢ $202 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $39 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 40¢ $37 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $40 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 9¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 29¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.02 · official $2.82 (match) · 512 history records