Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:38:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf09…91d7 crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 506d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate82%45W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% +$1
other 33% $0
politics 10% $0
tech 9% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 55 -1.6% -11.0% 82% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

506d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses45 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage506d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $58 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $800 in April? May 05 $48 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 01 $44 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? Mar 03 $48 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? Feb 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? Feb 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? Jan 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $39 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? Dec 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? Dec 03 $37 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $49 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? Oct 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe Oct 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September? Oct 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August? Sep 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Sep 01 $36 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 02 $5 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jul 03 $23 $0 +1%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in May? Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? Jun 19 $11 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Trump severs ties with Ukraine before May? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 04 $6 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.70 in April? May 04 $7 $0 +2%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 04 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Greens win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentar Apr 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 13 $127 $0 -0%
Will another party win the second most seats in the next Canadian elec Apr 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 02 $4 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 25 $63 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2025? Mar 21 $63 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 07 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $63 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $58 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 61d
Will BNB reach $800 in April? BUY No 100¢ $48 63d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $10 91d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $44 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $11 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? BUY No 100¢ $48 122d
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? BUY No 100¢ $11 149d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 149d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $43 150d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $4 180d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $18 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $39 182d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? BUY No 100¢ $12 211d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $37 211d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 100¢ $7 241d
Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $22 241d
Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $27 242d
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $8 272d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe BUY Yes 100¢ $18 273d
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $31 273d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $9 301d
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August? BUY No 100¢ $14 302d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? BUY No 100¢ $36 302d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 100¢ $5 332d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $12 333d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 100¢ $43 333d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? BUY No 99¢ $23 366d
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.96 · official $62.96 (match) · 121 history records