Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:21:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf0d…a3f5 politics 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 381d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$207 (+2%) realized +$207 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate12%12W / 84L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$226
7 days+$226
14 days+$226
30 days+$226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% −$5
other 31% −$9
sports 18% +$225
crypto 7% −$1
culture 5% −$1
economics 3% −$2
world 3% −$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +103.9% +84.5% 50% 50% +191.8%
≤30d 5 +41.6% +28.1% 60% 20% +24.6%
≤90d 5 +41.6% +28.1% 60% 20% +24.6%
all 96 -6.8% -15.6% 12% 1% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 1% -7.8%
10% -23.7% 1% -16.6%
15% -31.1% 1% -24.6%
20% -37.8% 1% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$0 · ×60.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.22 per $1 lost it wins $9.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

381d coverage
Net worth$301
Realized+$207
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses12 / 84
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage381d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $301 $301 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $5 −$2 -29%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 27 $96 +$228 +236%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 20 $89 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $315 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 5? Mar 06 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 20? Feb 22 $95 $0 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 15 $93 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 07 $96 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 31 $94 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 26 $95 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 24? Jan 25 $97 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 23 $95 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 20 $190 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 19? Jan 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $204 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 17 $99 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $1 $0 -17%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 15 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 15 $1 $0 -33%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $98 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $1 $0 -20%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 11 $99 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 08 $102 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 06 $98 $0 +0%
Will Mallorca win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 05 $99 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 03 $98 $0 -0%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Jan 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 01 $97 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 30 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 28 $98 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 27 $209 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 24 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 22 $209 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 20 $72 −$1 -2%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 18 $102 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 16 $102 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 14 $101 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 12 $210 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 10 $101 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 09 $103 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 06 $213 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 5? Dec 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 03 $100 $0 -0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 01 $208 $0 -0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 30 $202 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Nov 30 $1 $0 -61%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 29 $1 $0 -33%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 28 $1 $0 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $301 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $96 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 9d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $89 12d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 12d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 13d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $92 13d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $92 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $94 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 5? BUY No 100¢ $96 114d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 20? BUY No 100¢ $95 127d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $93 132d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $93 135d
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 141d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $96 141d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $96 147d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $94 147d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $94 151d
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $95 152d
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $95 153d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $97 154d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $95 155d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $95 156d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $95 158d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $95 159d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 19? BUY No 0¢ $1 160d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $95 160d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $95 160d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.55 · official $300.55 (match) · 369 history records