Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:48:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xaf0e…3197
crypto · 900 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$1,098 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,556 · open −$600
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8,862
Realized+$1,556
Unrealized−$600
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses728 / 166
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$144
Open positions4
Markets (closed)894 / 900
History coverage38d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day67.5
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 4 History 894 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$307
7 days+$1,160
14 days−$1,228
30 days+$3,068
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $7,410 $6,799 −$611 (-8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1,763 $1,776 +$13 (+1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $175 $174 −$1 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? No 76¢ 76¢ $114 $113 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $61 +$39 +64%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $230 +$157 +68%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $33 −$17 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $223 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $496 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $87 +$13 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $485 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $18 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $44 +$4 +8%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $441 +$42 +10%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $356 +$86 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $62 +$38 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $172 −$172 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $418 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $93 +$7 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $102 +$99 +97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $155 +$45 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $92 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $181 +$19 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $190 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $88 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $76 +$23 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $178 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $81 +$19 +24%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $90 +$10 +11%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $82 +$18 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $93 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $198 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 69% −$2,067
other 23% +$2,810
sports 8% +$201
world 0% −$45
finance 0% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $76 48m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $115 49m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 99¢ $388 50m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 20¢ $16 56m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $7 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $3 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $3 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $3 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $3 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $2 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 71¢ $130 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $61 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $216 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 25¢ $102 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $100 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 80¢ $99 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $101 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $77 6h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 7h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $49 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $46 7h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $28 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 +2.7% -7.1% 87% 28% -4.1%
≤30d 595 -3.4% -12.6% 81% 30% -7.4%
≤90d 894 -4.8% -13.8% 81% 26% -8.8%
all 894 -4.8% -13.8% 81% 26% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover67.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 26% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 16% -17.5%
15% -29.6% 10% -25.5%
20% -36.5% 7% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,861.78 · official $8,961.78 · 3500 history records