Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:36:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AF 0xaf0e…7b43 crypto 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$91 (-1%) realized −$138 · open +$47
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate76%93W / 29L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$31
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$85
crypto 25% −$52
sports 15% −$96
world 11% −$9
politics 5% −$15
tech 1% −$1
economics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -51.3% -56.0% 0% 0% -89.5%
≤30d 2 -51.3% -56.0% 0% 0% -89.5%
≤90d 6 -67.1% -70.2% 17% 0% -35.7%
all 122 -4.3% -13.4% 76% 9% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 9% -11.0%
10% -21.7% 7% -19.5%
15% -29.3% 2% -27.3%
20% -36.2% 2% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% too few recent
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$18 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$138
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses93 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)122 / 124
History coverage238d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 19¢ 18¢ $69 $67 −$2 (-3%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 57¢ $6 $55 +$49 (+757%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Jun 26 $4 $0 -3%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? Apr 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 30 $111 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Mar 26 $898 −$361 -40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 09 $2 +$1 +56%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Mar 09 $106 +$1 +1%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Feb 28 $7 $0 -0%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 31? Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 m Feb 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 05 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jan 28 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026? Jan 24 $1 $0 +0%
LoL: T1 Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leag Jan 21 $1 $0 +35%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 18, 2026 (ET)? Jan 21 $4 $0 +2%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-20? Jan 20 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jan 19 $2 $0 +23%
Solana Up or Down - January 4, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 06 $3 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - January 1, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jan 04 $5 $0 +2%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31? Jan 04 $5 $0 +3%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 04 $883 −$1 -0%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Jan 04 $10 $0 +2%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 04 $11 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jan 04 $13 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026? Jan 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? Jan 01 $10 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $24 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Dec 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 31 $3 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 28 $20 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Dec 12 $3 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - December 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Dec 12 $4 $0 +1%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? Dec 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bad Bunny be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Dec 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Dec 01 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 01 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? Dec 01 $238 $0 -0%
Will Trump talk to Kim Jong Un in November? Dec 01 $12 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 01 $18 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025? Dec 01 $595 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025? Nov 30 $462 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 19¢ $5 1h
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? SELL No 49¢ $4 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 19¢ $67 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No $1 4d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $31 5d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No $1 79d
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? BUY No 49¢ $4 81d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 96¢ $6 81d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No $1 82d
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $111 91d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 26¢ $4 108d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 48¢ $315 108d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 51¢ $189 108d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 59¢ $218 108d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 76¢ $127 108d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 71¢ $4 108d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 71¢ $125 108d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 71¢ $17 108d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 71¢ $20 108d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 71¢ $11 108d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 71¢ $11 108d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 71¢ $34 108d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 75¢ $361 108d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 91¢ $36 108d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 91¢ $55 108d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 91¢ $1 108d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 91¢ $5 108d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 91¢ $10 108d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 88¢ $10 108d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 90¢ $67 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.35 · official $122.35 (match) · 313 history records