Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:03:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf12…18a9 other 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate36%23W / 41L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$16
world 21% −$3
politics 16% −$7
finance 10% +$1
crypto 3% +$2
sports 3% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 20% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 14% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.9%
all 64 +1.4% -8.3% 36% 6% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 6% -8.8%
10% -17.0% 3% -17.5%
15% -25.1% 3% -25.5%
20% -32.4% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses23 / 41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage308d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $37 $0 +1%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 24 $33 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $34 −$1 -3%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $14 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $34 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $38 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $38 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $102 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $37 −$4 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $39 +$2 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $2 $0 +4%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Mar 24 $45 −$6 -12%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 23 $2 $0 -15%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Dec 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $6 +$8 +127%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 04 $2 −$2 -73%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 22 $12 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $30 $0 -1%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $13 +$7 +52%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Nov 19 $14 $0 +2%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Nov 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $2 $0 -12%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 13 $1 $0 -8%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 12 $1 $0 +13%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 12 $0 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $3 $0 -5%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 10 $1 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 09 $8 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 09 $1 $0 -13%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? Oct 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Oct 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $33 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $37 3h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $37 4h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 52¢ $33 21h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 52¢ $33 25h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $34 37h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $1 40h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $33 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $33 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $34 47h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $7 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $27 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $8 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $27 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 79¢ $6 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 79¢ $32 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 79¢ $38 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $38 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $38 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $34 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $34 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $6 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $28 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $31 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $3 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $34 31d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $34 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.12 · official $33.12 (match) · 289 history records