Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:41:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf12…db75 sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$121 (-48%) realized −$121 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 58d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$119
other 29% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-33.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -19.2% -26.9% 0% 0% -26.9%
≤30d 1 -19.2% -26.9% 0% 0% -26.9%
≤90d 3 -26.4% -33.4% 33% 33% -64.4%
all 3 -26.4% -33.4% 33% 33% -64.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.4% 33% -64.4%
10% -39.7% 33% -67.8%
15% -45.6% 33% -70.9%
20% -50.9% 0% -73.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$70 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$121
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage58d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $72 −$14 -19%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 05 $20 +$8 +40%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $130 −$127 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 57¢ $58 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Colombia BUY 8¢ $3 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $72 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Colombia BUY 6¢ $25 2h
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) SELL Timberwolves 80¢ $28 50d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Timberwolves 56¢ $20 50d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 6¢ $10 58d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 29¢ $16 58d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 32¢ $5 58d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 31¢ $5 58d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 31¢ $5 58d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 47¢ $10 58d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 50¢ $5 58d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 44¢ $5 58d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 45¢ $69 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $27.39 · 15 history records