Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:46:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf13…20af sports 28 markets active 7d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-13%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate57%16W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% $0
other 30% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 28 -12.6% -20.9% 57% 46% -22.0%
≤90d 28 -12.6% -20.9% 57% 46% -22.0%
all 28 -12.6% -20.9% 57% 46% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 46% -22.0%
10% -28.5% 39% -29.4%
15% -35.4% 25% -36.3%
20% -41.7% 14% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses16 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage4d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1 $0 +10%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 +49%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $2 $0 -6%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 +24%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 +11%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +46%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 $0 +37%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -51%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +27%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $3 $0 +7%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +19%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 +32%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -66%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +68%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -91%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$3 +90%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$4 +106%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 21¢ $1 7d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1 7d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1 7d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $1 7d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $1 7d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 7d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 52¢ $1 7d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 7d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 54¢ $1 7d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 7d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 7d
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 7d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $1 7d
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $1 7d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1 7d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 8d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 8d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 8d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 8d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 45¢ $0 8d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $1 8d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 8d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 78¢ $1 8d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $3 8d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 77¢ $2 8d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 8d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 53¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records