Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AF 0xaf14…a601 other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$86 (+21%) realized +$38 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%11W / 23L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$71
14 days+$38
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$44
sports 32% +$38
crypto 13% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +35.5% +22.6% 41% 41% +32.7%
≤30d 34 +1.6% -8.1% 32% 32% +7.1%
≤90d 34 +1.6% -8.1% 32% 32% +7.1%
all 34 +1.6% -8.1% 32% 32% +7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 32% +7.1%
10% -16.9% 32% -3.2%
15% -24.9% 32% -12.5%
20% -32.3% 26% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$5 · ×2.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses11 / 23
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions17
Markets (closed)34 / 51
History coverage15d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 30¢ 100¢ $15 $50 +$35 (+233%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 28¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+50%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 40¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+40%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+6%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 8¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 6¢ $10 $2 −$7 (-75%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 3¢ 5¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+100%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 4¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-84%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 12¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -66%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$12 +113%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$8 +158%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -84%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$31 +596%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -84%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $12 +$5 +42%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$18 +173%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +156%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $10 −$3 -33%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$1 +49%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 13h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 13h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 13h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 13h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 13h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 13h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 40¢ $22 22h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 38¢ $5 24h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 24h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 24h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 25h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 29¢ $15 36h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 37h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 37h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 37h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 37h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 37h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 76¢ $28 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 55¢ $14 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.41 · official $203.13 (match) · 95 history records