Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:04:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xaf14…c81e
other · 39 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$22 -34%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$23 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses9 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 39
History coverage133d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%
Chart Positions 2 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-04-25? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Apr 25 $1 $0 -7%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $2 −$2 -88%
Will FC Augsburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? Apr 25 $1 +$1 +72%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 25 $1 $0 -42%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? Apr 25 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $1 +$2 +163%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $3 −$1 -31%
Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -83%
Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $1 +$3 +350%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $2 +$1 +30%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 2 Real Madrid CF? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-02-01? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $4 +$5 +120%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -71%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $1 +$2 +246%
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2026-04-24? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-04-24? Apr 15 $2 $0 +9%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $2 −$2 -88%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $2 +$2 +94%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 71% −$16
crypto 15% −$4
sports 11% −$1
world 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 7¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 10¢ $2 29h
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 46d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 49d
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-04-25? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 49d
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-04-25? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 49d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 49d
Will FC Augsburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? SELL Yes 51¢ $2 49d
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 49d
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? SELL Yes 52¢ $1 49d
Will FC Augsburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 49d
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 49d
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 49d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 49d
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 49d
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 49d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 50d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 52d
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 55d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? SELL Yes 78¢ $3 56d
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 57d
Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-04-18? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 57d
Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 57d
Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-04-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 57d
Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 57d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 57d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-40.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 33 -29.9% -36.6% 27% 24% -42.6%
all 35 -33.9% -40.2% 26% 23% -44.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.2% 23% -44.6%
10% -45.9% 23% -49.9%
15% -51.1% 20% -54.7%
20% -55.9% 17% -59.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.96 · official $3.46 · 80 history records