Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:50:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf16…464e other 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 493d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$6,081 (-43%) realized −$6,076 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%3W / 23L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$521per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$395now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$249
7 days+$249
14 days+$249
30 days+$249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$2,208
politics 19% −$2,078
world 15% −$906
economics 14% −$353
crypto 3% −$400
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-61.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +45.5% +31.7% 100% 100% +31.7%
≤30d 1 +45.5% +31.7% 100% 100% +31.7%
≤90d 1 +45.5% +31.7% 100% 100% +31.7%
all 26 -57.2% -61.3% 12% 8% -48.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.3% 8% -48.8%
10% -65.0% 8% -53.7%
15% -68.4% 8% -58.1%
20% -71.5% 4% -62.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$971) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -40% → late -74% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$498 vs −$323 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

493d coverage
Net worth$395
Realized−$6,076
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses3 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage493d
Avg bet$521
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $400 $395 −$5 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $547 +$249 +46%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 20 $87 −$87 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 20 $971 −$884 -91%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 27 $800 −$57 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 10 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 08 $791 −$718 -91%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 05 $1,223 −$296 -24%
Nothing Ever Happens: November Nov 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Nov 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 28 $300 −$202 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 26 $300 −$300 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 25? Nov 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 25? Nov 25 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 25 $537 +$1,170 +218%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday? Nov 25 $1,081 −$22 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the Monad public sale commitments be less than $400M? Nov 23 $1,006 +$76 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025 Nov 22 $197 −$197 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 22 $100 −$3 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Over $200M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 22 $289 −$7 -2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 04 $1,461 −$1,461 -100%
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? Oct 27 $1,185 −$530 -45%
Was Milei hacked? Feb 15 $1,674 −$1,557 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $407 17m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $797 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $547 4h
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $87 153d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $87 153d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $371 177d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 13¢ $371 177d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $371 177d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 13¢ $371 177d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $228 177d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 14¢ $800 177d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY Yes 9¢ $73 194d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 SELL Yes 2¢ $73 196d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 BUY Yes 16¢ $791 197d
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 6¢ $791 199d
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 7¢ $623 199d
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 7¢ $300 199d
Nothing Ever Happens: November BUY No 10¢ $100 205d
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? BUY Yes 3¢ $100 205d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 BUY Yes 5¢ $100 206d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 BUY Yes 1¢ $100 206d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 BUY Yes 4¢ $100 208d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 BUY Yes 5¢ $200 208d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 SELL Yes 2¢ $98 208d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 25? BUY Yes 1¢ $100 209d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 25? BUY Yes 11¢ $300 209d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 BUY Yes 3¢ $200 209d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 SELL Yes 86¢ $822 209d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 BUY Yes 7¢ $100 209d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 BUY Yes 42¢ $401 209d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $395.12 · official $395.12 (match) · 83 history records