Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:10:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf17…5c20 weather 711 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (124 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18,839 (+132%) realized +$19,056 · open −$217
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate16%121W / 634L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day124.0pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,349now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 84% +$4,447
other 9% −$814
sports 7% +$1,087
crypto 0% −$52
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (124 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 346 -8.3% -17.1% 14% 13% +19.7%
≤30d 755 -1.6% -11.0% 16% 15% +14.5%
≤90d 755 -1.6% -11.0% 16% 15% +14.5%
all 755 -1.6% -11.0% 16% 15% +14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover124.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 15% +14.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 14% +3.5%
15% -27.3% 13% -6.5%
20% -34.4% 12% -15.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +27% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$10 · ×8.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$1,349
Realized+$19,056
Unrealized−$217
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses121 / 634
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions12
Markets (closed)755 / 711
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day124.0
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 755 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 82¢ $500 $816 +$316 (+63%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? Yes 25¢ 44¢ $118 $210 +$92 (+78%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 18¢ $500 $184 −$316 (-63%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? Yes 21¢ 100¢ $23 $111 +$88 (+380%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-76%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$11 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 19? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 19? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 19? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 19? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 487 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 7? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 4? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 43°C on May 18? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 6? Jun 19 $2 −$15 -733%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 6? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 12? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on April 22? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C or higher on May 8? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C or higher on May 13? Jun 19 $4 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 27? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 28? Jun 19 $4 −$10 -233%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 22? Jun 19 $22 −$28 -126%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 21? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on May 12? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 11? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 1? Jun 19 $8 +$195 +2531%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on April 20? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on April 23? Jun 19 $6 +$17 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on May 12? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 15°C on April 8? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 4? Jun 19 $7 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on April 23? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 23? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 11? Jun 19 $6 −$2 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 20 Jun 19 $3 −$9 -293%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 4? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 11? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 4? Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 14? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 23? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on May 23? Jun 19 $4 −$5 -118%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 23? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ap Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 11 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on April 28? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 14? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 7? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 8? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on March 24? Jun 19 $5 −$14 -269%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on May 8? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 21? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 13? Jun 19 $20 −$13 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on April 25? Jun 19 $12 −$2 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on March 30? Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C on March 20? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 30? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 11? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on April 1? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 4? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 55¢ $0 33m
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 45¢ $90 33m
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 38¢ $0 42m
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 38¢ $18 42m
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 62¢ $153 50m
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 64¢ $3 50m
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 54m
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 26¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 25¢ $46 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 26¢ $74 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 28¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 31¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 25¢ $212 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 25¢ $78 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,349.20 · official $1,350.68 (match) · 3500 history records