Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:31:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AF 0xaf17…dc1a sports 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$536 (+7%) realized +$532 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%21W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$531now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$861
7 days+$663
14 days+$1,402
30 days+$2,161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$614
other 12% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +82.1% +64.7% 80% 80% +48.4%
≤30d 13 +64.3% +48.6% 85% 85% +44.8%
≤90d 13 +64.3% +48.6% 85% 85% +44.8%
all 42 -10.2% -18.7% 50% 50% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 50% -1.4%
10% -26.5% 48% -10.8%
15% -33.6% 48% -19.4%
20% -40.1% 36% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$141 vs −$111 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$531
Realized+$532
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses21 / 21
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions3
Markets (closed)42 / 45
History coverage227d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 57¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ 50¢ $200 $187 −$13 (-7%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 56¢ 64¢ $127 $146 +$19 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $167 +$162 +97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $124 +$141 +114%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $444 +$327 +74%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$231 +226%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 −$198 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $608 +$472 +78%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $345 +$267 +78%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $202 +$131 +64%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $424 +$196 +46%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $304 +$199 +65%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $292 +$157 +54%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $191 +$85 +44%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $199 −$8 -4%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw? Feb 25 $226 −$226 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers Feb 25 $157 +$70 +45%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge KV end in a draw? Feb 24 $130 +$27 +20%
Magic vs. Suns Feb 24 $69 +$46 +67%
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) Feb 22 $123 −$123 -100%
Spread: Heat (-11.5) Feb 22 $123 −$123 -100%
76ers vs. Pelicans Feb 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $69 +$40 +59%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $69 +$30 +44%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $86 +$46 +54%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $86 +$42 +49%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $69 +$66 +96%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $81 −$81 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets Feb 21 $50 +$30 +61%
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 241.5 Feb 21 $185 −$185 -100%
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers Feb 21 $77 −$77 -100%
Spread: 76ers (-1.5) Feb 21 $372 +$187 +50%
Spread: Pelicans (-4.5) Feb 21 $188 −$188 -100%
Spread: Heat (-3.5) Feb 21 $185 −$185 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) Feb 21 $182 −$182 -100%
Nuggets vs. Clippers Feb 20 $93 −$93 -100%
Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 211.5 Feb 20 $92 −$92 -100%
Spread: Raptors (-6.5) Feb 20 $131 −$131 -100%
Rockets vs. Hornets Feb 19 $92 −$92 -100%
Rockets vs. Hornets: O/U 216.5 Feb 19 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-19? Feb 19 $160 −$160 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5 Jan 31 $100 −$8 -8%
Bulls vs. Pistons Nov 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Bulls vs. Bucks Nov 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $203 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $203 2h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $129 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $330 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $167 24h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $265 24h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $124 36h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $444 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $333 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $201 2d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 99¢ $1,080 13d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 55¢ $608 13d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL Monte 99¢ $612 13d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 55¢ $345 13d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $333 20d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL GamerLegion 99¢ $620 20d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 60¢ $202 20d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL M80 99¢ $20 20d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL M80 95¢ $483 20d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY GamerLegion 67¢ $424 20d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 57¢ $304 20d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL B8 100¢ $450 20d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY B8 65¢ $63 20d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY B8 65¢ $65 20d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY B8 65¢ $93 20d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY B8 65¢ $71 20d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL GamerLegion 99¢ $276 20d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY GamerLegion 68¢ $191 20d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL Heroic 61¢ $192 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $531.34 · official $549.47 · 78 history records