Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:03:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AF 0xaf18…bca7 politics 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$99 (-0%) realized −$100 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate7%7W / 98L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$931per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$806now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$18
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$49
politics 40% −$47
world 5% −$13
culture 5% −$7
sports 4% +$4
economics 2% −$3
tech 2% −$2
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 95 +1.0% -8.6% 7% 6% -9.6%
all 105 +0.9% -8.7% 7% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 6% -9.6%
10% -17.4% 6% -18.3%
15% -25.4% 5% -26.2%
20% -32.7% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,293) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$2 · ×6.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$806
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses7 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)105 / 107
History coverage100d
Avg bet$931
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $520 $520 +$1 (+0%)
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $286 $286 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $268 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,413 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $831 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $2,390 −$3 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $2,444 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $779 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $1,461 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $1,543 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $638 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $657 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $815 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $2,538 −$3 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $1,346 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 04 $403 +$1 +0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $1,329 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,342 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,464 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,491 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $409 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $480 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $742 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 21 $46 +$38 +83%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $642 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 20 $34 +$29 +86%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1,408 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $708 −$1 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs May 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $796 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $2,369 −$3 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $792 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $775 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $700 −$1 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 15 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 15 $1,554 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $1,527 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 14 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $1,527 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $845 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $2,796 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $286 1h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $248 1h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $249 3h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $268 19h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $268 22h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $520 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $752 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $754 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $663 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $664 9d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $829 10d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $831 10d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $729 10d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $731 10d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $848 11d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $850 11d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $778 13d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $779 13d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $635 13d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $635 13d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $740 13d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $741 14d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $637 14d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $638 14d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $656 18d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $657 18d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $871 19d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $872 19d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $814 20d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $815 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $806.42 · official $806.42 (match) · 351 history records