Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:55:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf1c…98e8 crypto 208 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$297 (-10%) realized −$294 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%113W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$89
14 days−$256
30 days−$295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$280
crypto 27% −$74
other 13% +$8
world 0% +$6
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +1.4% -8.3% 62% 62% -25.7%
≤30d 116 -3.1% -12.3% 60% 59% -20.7%
≤90d 204 -9.6% -18.2% 55% 53% -20.2%
all 204 -9.6% -18.2% 55% 53% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 53% -20.2%
10% -26.1% 45% -27.8%
15% -33.2% 38% -34.8%
20% -39.8% 25% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$294
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses113 / 91
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions4
Markets (closed)204 / 208
History coverage62d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Uzbekistan 90¢ 87¢ $69 $67 −$2 (-3%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Uzbekistan 57¢ 55¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals No 72¢ 72¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Uzbekistan 33¢ 32¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $7 +$3 +43%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $7 +$3 +49%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $6 +$4 +72%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $37 +$6 +16%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 8.5 Corners Jun 23 $10 +$6 +61%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $21 +$9 +42%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan Jun 22 $21 −$16 -76%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $25 −$3 -10%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $14 −$10 -71%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $16 +$10 +59%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19 +$11 +56%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$10 +104%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $34 −$34 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $6 +$4 +69%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $15 −$7 -45%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $8 +$7 +92%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $12 +$3 +28%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $14 −$14 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $6 +$4 +61%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $27 +$13 +47%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $38 −$37 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $63 −$63 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $52 +$11 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $7 +$2 +34%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 16 $91 −$91 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $23 +$16 +71%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 12 $4 $0 -7%
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $18 +$6 +31%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$6 +100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $8 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $72 +$57 +80%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $17 +$3 +17%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $88 +$20 +22%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $13 +$7 +56%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $12 +$8 +61%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $25 +$5 +22%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $44 +$14 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 90¢ $70 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 33¢ $3 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 72¢ $9 2h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 57¢ $20 2h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 8.5 Corners BUY Under 61¢ $10 19h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 69¢ $7 19h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $37 25h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $7 25h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan SELL Alex Molcan 13¢ $2 25h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan SELL Alex Molcan 34¢ $3 25h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan BUY Alex Molcan 81¢ $21 26h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane SELL Gabriel Diallo 56¢ $23 26h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Gabriel Diallo 60¢ $25 29h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider SELL Diana Shnaider 14¢ $4 29h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $14 29h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 48¢ $10 29h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 49¢ $5 30h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $6 30h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $7 30h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $16 42h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $20 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $34 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 SELL Over 38¢ $9 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $15 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 77¢ $12 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Sweden $0 2d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2 3d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 52¢ $6 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 68¢ $14 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.83 · official $97.83 (match) · 503 history records