Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:35:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf1d…a213 other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$272 (-18%) realized −$271 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%7W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$367
sports 25% +$29
crypto 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -29.3% -36.1% 33% 29% -32.7%
≤30d 21 -29.3% -36.1% 33% 29% -32.7%
≤90d 21 -29.3% -36.1% 33% 29% -32.7%
all 21 -29.3% -36.1% 33% 29% -32.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.1% 29% -32.7%
10% -42.2% 29% -39.1%
15% -47.8% 29% -45.0%
20% -52.9% 24% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$39 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$201
Realized−$271
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses7 / 14
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions7
Markets (closed)21 / 28
History coverage5d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 62¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$17 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$14 +55%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $68 −$66 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $49 +$2 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $85 −$68 -80%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $216 −$26 -12%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $76 −$49 -64%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $62 −$44 -71%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $105 +$75 +72%
Czechia to win the second half? Jun 18 $51 −$15 -30%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 18 $10 −$8 -79%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $56 +$22 +40%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $5 −$3 -59%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $118 −$98 -83%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $112 −$19 -17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $80 −$78 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $101 +$75 +75%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$10 +103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $12 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 62¢ $12 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $26 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $25 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $39 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $39 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $28 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 15h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $25 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 15h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $52 29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 76¢ $51 29h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $16 29h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $17 29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $49 29h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 32h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 32h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $2 34h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $19 34h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $57 34h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 94¢ $82 34h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 87¢ $27 34h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 87¢ $49 34h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $27 35h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.21 · official $201.21 (match) · 102 history records