Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:43:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AF 0xaf26…6d04 crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$4 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate61%14W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1
other 1% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -4.8% -13.8% 62% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 23 -5.7% -14.7% 61% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 23 -5.7% -14.7% 61% 0% -9.6%
all 23 -5.7% -14.7% 61% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -22.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses14 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage11d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Yes 98¢ 96¢ $79 $78 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $51 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $51 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $28 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $23 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -38%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 98¢ $80 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $51 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $29 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 95¢ $28 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $23 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $23 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $23 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $2 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 96¢ $20 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 95¢ $2 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $10 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 23¢ $0 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $10 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $1 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $10 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 79¢ $1 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.59 · official $77.59 (match) · 50 history records