Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:06:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf2a…64dd sports 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (549 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$602 (-0%) realized −$509 · open −$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +447% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +280% what you keep after slip
Net edge+280%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate59%33W / 23L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$6,732per market
Trades / day548.6pace
Fees−$3,092est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$3,605
other 23% +$5,521
crypto 2% +$949
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (549 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+394.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +446.9% +394.8% 59% 34% -5.7%
≤30d 56 +446.9% +394.8% 59% 34% -5.7%
≤90d 56 +446.9% +394.8% 59% 34% -5.7%
all 56 +446.9% +394.8% 59% 34% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover548.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +394.8% 34% -5.7%
10% +347.5% 29% -14.7%
15% ← realistic here +304.2% 27% -23.0%
20% +264.6% 27% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +447% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$4,901) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +358% → late +536% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
61.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$534 vs −$397 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$509
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses33 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$3,092
Open positions17
Markets (closed)56 / 44
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$6,732
Trades / day548.6
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 44¢ 42¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 31¢ 0¢ $93 $0 −$93 (-100%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+23%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+46%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+31%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-35%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-16%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+42%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-33%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-41%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Tunisia 54¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Tunisia 18¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 21 $0 −$1,703 -1881446%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 21 $0 +$499 +131969%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 21 $0 +$100 +23320%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 21 $0 −$220 -273701%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 21 $0 +$130 +31360%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 21 $0 +$960 +2037980%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $0 −$320 -393684%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 21 $0 +$440 +176018%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 21 $1 −$775 -152142%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $0 −$500 -253106%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 21 $1 −$1,024 -150111%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 21 $0 +$61 +118182%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $3 +$1,011 +35999%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 21 $0 −$295 -503382%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $0 −$40 -17803%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $6,212 −$34 -0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $22,385 −$1,642 -7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4,509 +$949 +21%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $2,604 −$32 -1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $9,119 −$207 -2%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $2,309 +$1 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 19 $5,988 −$11 -0%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 19 $5,809 +$39 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $3,960 +$40 +1%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 19 $4,039 −$41 -1%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $4,040 −$40 -1%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $2,000 $0 +0%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $6,000 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $7,988 +$11 +0%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 19 $9,985 +$13 +0%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $2,000 $0 -0%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $2,085 +$455 +22%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $2,020 −$420 -21%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $7,991 +$7 +0%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2,965 −$43 -1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5,999 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7,976 +$21 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $679 +$1,320 +194%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5,255 +$1,560 +30%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $10,081 +$18 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4,766 +$14 +0%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,600 −$30 -2%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3,895 +$20 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,980 −$400 -20%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $3,979 +$20 +0%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,978 +$799 +20%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6,016 +$2,658 +44%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $11,711 −$1,291 -11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11,384 +$2,059 +18%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4,037 +$605 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 54¢ $713 55m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 53¢ $2 56m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 53¢ $11 56m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 53¢ $3 56m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 53¢ $282 56m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 53¢ $28 56m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 52¢ $32 57m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 48¢ $161 57m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 48¢ $1 57m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 48¢ $1 57m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 48¢ $2 57m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 48¢ $6 57m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 48¢ $8 57m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 48¢ $620 57m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 48¢ $2 57m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 48¢ $159 57m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 52¢ $945 58m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 49¢ $891 58m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 49¢ $75 58m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 49¢ $13 58m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 50¢ $88 59m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 50¢ $2 59m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 50¢ $100 59m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 50¢ $181 59m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 50¢ $500 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 50¢ $2 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 50¢ $2 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 50¢ $50 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 50¢ $9 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 50¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.57 · official $0.15 · 3500 history records