Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:44:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AF 0xaf2c…300c other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-3%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$13
tech 6% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -6.0% -15.0% 0% 0% -15.0%
≤30d 2 -6.0% -15.0% 0% 0% -15.0%
≤90d 4 -26.3% -33.3% 25% 0% -14.7%
all 4 -26.3% -33.3% 25% 0% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.3% 0% -14.7%
10% -39.7% 0% -22.8%
15% -45.5% 0% -30.3%
20% -50.9% 0% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage52d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $98 −$5 -5%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? Jun 19 $105 −$7 -7%
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $93 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $98 30h
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $98 30h
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $105 2d
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 51d
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 51d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records