Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:58:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf32…ebe8 world 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 331d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate37%25W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$7
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$1
other 21% −$3
sports 19% $0
politics 17% +$1
weather 1% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.6% -11.0% 57% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 32 -1.4% -10.8% 44% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 41 -2.1% -11.4% 41% 0% -9.6%
all 68 -1.2% -10.6% 37% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

331d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses25 / 43
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage331d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 69¢ 68¢ $88 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $97 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $46 −$4 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $9 $0 +4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $15 −$1 -7%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $296 +$1 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $74 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $221 +$3 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $87 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $96 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $25 +$2 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $8 −$1 -12%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $99 −$2 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $92 −$3 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -27%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $102 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $153 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $100 +$3 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $199 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $105 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $257 +$4 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $143 −$4 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $98 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $113 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $74 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $97 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $43 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $89 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $98 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $8 −$4 -43%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $2 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $526 +$1 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $561 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $274 +$1 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $640 +$1 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 31 $71 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jul 31 $70 +$1 +2%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 30 $70 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%? Jul 30 $7 $0 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Jul 29 $7 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 29 $70 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 29 $57 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $88 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $97 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $97 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $12 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 22¢ $42 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 24¢ $18 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 24¢ $29 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $101 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $100 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $100 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $100 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 25¢ $4 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 25¢ $20 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 25¢ $24 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $40 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $35 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $95 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $95 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $74 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.00 · official $87.00 (match) · 253 history records