Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:16:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AF 0xaf32…0968 world 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$44 (+5%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate74%14W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days−$43
14 days−$43
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 98% −$12
other 2% +$1
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -11.8% -20.2% 33% 33% -14.9%
≤30d 8 -1.7% -11.1% 62% 38% -10.7%
≤90d 19 -3.5% -12.6% 74% 21% -10.6%
all 19 -3.5% -12.6% 74% 21% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 21% -10.6%
10% -21.0% 11% -19.1%
15% -28.6% 11% -26.9%
20% -35.6% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$35 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses14 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage51d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $236 −$90 -38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $292 +$128 +44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $196 −$81 -41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $71 +$26 +36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $50 +$8 +15%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? May 27 $7 −$3 -39%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $15 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $4 $0 +4%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 18 $10 $0 +4%
Will another Canadian MP cross the floor by May 15, 2026? May 16 $4 $0 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 15 $5 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 12 $4 $0 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $3 $0 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $39 +$2 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 8, 2026? May 09 $3 $0 +5%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $1 $0 -1%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 01 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 41¢ $146 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $186 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $50 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $236 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $89 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $30 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $119 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $115 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $115 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $65 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $65 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $96 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $96 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $35 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $58 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $58 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $71 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $5 21d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $15 21d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $16 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $10 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 99¢ $11 21d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $15 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 95¢ $4 30d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $10 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 91¢ $4 32d
Will another Canadian MP cross the floor by May 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $4 33d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $7 34d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $5 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records