Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:32:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xaf33…b5f8
crypto · 1100 markets active 7h ago
0.0score
−$2,253 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,962 · open −$155
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1,741
Realized−$1,962
Unrealized−$155
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses496 / 594
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1090 / 1100
Avg bet$69
Trades / day35.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 10 History 1090 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$231
7 days−$800
14 days−$800
30 days−$800
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $500 $432 −$68 (-14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $300 $334 +$34 (+11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $303 $298 −$5 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $296 $268 −$29 (-10%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $300 $225 −$75 (-25%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $90 $82 −$8 (-8%)
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $70 $67 −$2 (-4%)
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 4¢ 4¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 5¢ 4¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-15%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 3¢ 3¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,060 −$468 -23%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $515 −$353 -69%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $311 −$10 -3%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $143 −$140 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1,376 +$716 +52%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $440 +$447 +102%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $4,748 −$423 -9%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 09 $317 −$33 -10%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $710 −$72 -10%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,030 −$254 -25%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,544 −$210 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Apr 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Apr 13 $11 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Apr 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Apr 13 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Apr 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Apr 13 $9 +$6 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Apr 13 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Apr 13 $28 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Apr 13 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Apr 13 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Apr 13 $15 −$10 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Apr 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Apr 12 $31 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Apr 12 $14 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Apr 12 $13 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Apr 12 $31 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Apr 12 $33 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Apr 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Apr 12 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Apr 12 $12 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 12 $10 +$9 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 12 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 12 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 12 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Apr 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 12 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 12 $12 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 12 $11 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Apr 12 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Apr 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 12 $5 +$4 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 79% −$1,129
other 19% −$2,148
sports 2% +$1,160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $118 7h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $19 7h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $96 7h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 7h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $20 7h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 7h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 7h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $56 7h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $15 7h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $174 7h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $162 7h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $301 7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 28¢ $143 9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $92 19h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $72 19h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 18¢ $360 31h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 31h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 31h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 31h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 31h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $86 31h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $182 31h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $90 31h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 31h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 83¢ $446 31h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $441 31h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 39¢ $131 32h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 41¢ $179 32h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 41¢ $130 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -9.9% -18.4% 18% 18% -15.0%
≤30d 11 -9.9% -18.4% 18% 18% -15.0%
≤90d 1090 +1.9% -7.8% 46% 40% -12.0%
all 1090 +1.9% -7.8% 46% 40% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover35.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 40% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 34% -20.4%
15% -24.6% 27% -28.1%
20% -32.0% 19% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,740.78 · official $1,740.78 (match) · 3500 history records