Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:54:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf37…a766 world 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 483d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate34%16W / 31L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$1
other 26% −$1
politics 17% +$12
weather 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
economics 4% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.7%
all 47 +1.5% -8.2% 34% 4% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 4% -8.5%
10% -17.0% 4% -17.3%
15% -25.0% 2% -25.2%
20% -32.4% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.05 per $1 lost it wins $5.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

483d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses16 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage483d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $36 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $36 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $9 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $34 −$2 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 11 $1 $0 -23%
Iranian hackers release Trump emails by next Friday? Jul 11 $22 $0 -0%
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Octavian Berceanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 08 $23 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 01 $5 $0 -2%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 24 $21 +$1 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 29 $10 $0 -2%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 27 $2 +$1 +31%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 15 $4 $0 -7%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $22 $0 -0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Mar 31 $1 $0 -6%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? Mar 30 $28 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Mar 29 $27 $0 +1%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 45°F or below on March 21? Mar 22 $28 $0 +1%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Mar 20 $16 +$11 +69%
Conservatives win majority in Ontario election? Mar 04 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $33 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $8 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $28 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $36 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $37 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $37 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $24 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $9 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $33 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $17 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $16 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $33 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $36 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $36 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $9 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $27 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $36 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $16 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $16 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $32 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $8 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 12d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $33 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $33 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $30 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $4 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $4 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $22 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.48 · official $33.48 (match) · 145 history records