Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf38…0804 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,694 (-15%) realized −$1,695 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%15W / 16L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$346per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$1,996
sports 9% −$39
crypto 1% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +4.2% -5.7% 48% 42% -26.0%
≤30d 31 +4.2% -5.7% 48% 42% -26.0%
≤90d 31 +4.2% -5.7% 48% 42% -26.0%
all 31 +4.2% -5.7% 48% 42% -26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 42% -26.0%
10% -14.8% 35% -33.0%
15% -23.0% 35% -39.5%
20% -30.5% 26% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$201 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$201
Realized−$1,695
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses15 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage6d
Avg bet$346
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$72 +140%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $307 +$111 +36%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,195 −$304 -25%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $205 −$62 -30%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $52 −$28 -55%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 +$48 +47%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $226 −$226 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $204 −$108 -53%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $51 +$82 +160%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $204 +$125 +61%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $412 +$239 +58%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,406 −$1,271 -90%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $306 −$179 -58%
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,609 −$329 -20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $481 −$378 -79%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $293 −$171 -58%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$78 +76%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $103 −$74 -72%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 +$60 +58%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 −$17 -17%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,278 −$21 -2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $204 +$108 +53%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $338 +$18 +5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $541 +$57 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $103 +$95 +93%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $508 +$82 +16%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $21 −$10 -49%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $124 +$18 +14%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$41 +41%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $135 −$31 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $204 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $124 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 82¢ $418 4h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 40¢ $444 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $307 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 39¢ $143 7h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $204 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 15¢ $23 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $52 22h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $204 22h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $204 22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $205 22h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $71 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $150 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $102 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $134 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $330 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 29h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $51 29h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $204 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $122 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $162 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $163 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $163 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $103 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $173 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $136 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.39 · official $201.39 (match) · 110 history records