Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:44:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AF 0xaf3d…e346 crypto 1730 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d only
✗ bot/MM pace (95 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate65%1123W / 607L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day94.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$7
14 days−$14
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (95 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 330 -2.1% -11.4% 69% 69% -11.4%
≤30d 897 -4.0% -13.1% 66% 66% -13.1%
≤90d 1730 -2.9% -12.2% 65% 63% -12.3%
all 1730 -2.9% -12.2% 65% 63% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover94.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 63% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 27% -20.7%
15% -28.3% 5% -28.3%
20% -35.3% 1% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses1123 / 607
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1730 / 1730
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day94.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1730 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records