Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AF 0xaf3e…c9d4 other 72 markets active 3d ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$964 (+4%) realized +$1,152 · open −$188
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate69%48W / 22L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$313per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$364
14 days+$463
30 days+$1,532
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% +$1,411
other 10% −$62
sports 7% +$4
politics 1% −$49
crypto 1% +$3
culture 1% +$5
economics 0% −$7
tech 0% +$4
weather 0% +$7
finance 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +22.5% +10.8% 100% 50% +4.9%
≤30d 23 -2.7% -12.0% 74% 26% -1.3%
≤90d 40 -3.9% -13.0% 72% 25% -2.3%
all 70 -3.6% -12.8% 69% 21% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 21% -2.7%
10% -21.1% 7% -12.0%
15% -28.7% 3% -20.5%
20% -35.7% 3% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$8 · ×4.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.2 per $1 lost it wins $9.2
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$1,152
Unrealized−$188
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses48 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)70 / 72
History coverage237d
Avg bet$313
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 22¢ $189 $1 −$188 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $2,207 +$340 +15%
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? Jun 14 $23 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $33 +$22 +65%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $22 +$1 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $2,803 +$130 +5%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 05 $32 −$32 -99%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after Jun 05 $21 +$1 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $21 +$2 +12%
Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? Jun 02 $11 +$1 +13%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 02 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? Jun 02 $21 +$2 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $2,149 +$606 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $2,603 +$277 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 24 $1,867 +$48 +3%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap May 22 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 22 $160 −$8 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $1,592 +$120 +8%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 19 $1,600 −$4 -0%
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? May 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $23 −$11 -51%
Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NB May 19 $16 +$1 +5%
Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN? May 19 $24 +$1 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 19 $1,500 +$47 +3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 15 $1,500 −$1 -0%
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 11 $22 −$1 -3%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 11 $13 −$9 -70%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 11 $8 +$5 +66%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 May 04 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners May 04 $60 +$1 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Will MegaETH launch a token by December 31, 2026? Apr 29 $65 +$2 +4%
Will MegaETH launch a token by September 30, 2026? Apr 29 $25 +$2 +7%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in March Apr 15 $11 +$2 +16%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? Apr 15 $15 +$1 +8%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 15 $21 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 24? Apr 01 $17 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 11? Mar 24 $10 +$4 +35%
Will any candidate win the Texas Republican Senate Primary outright? Mar 24 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Don Tracy be the Republican nominee for Senate in Illinois? Mar 24 $16 +$1 +6%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Mar 24 $23 +$4 +15%
Will Jasmine Crockett lose the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary El Mar 11 $17 +$3 +18%
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 11 $21 +$6 +27%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? Mar 03 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Mar 03 $23 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February? Feb 26 $20 $0 +1%
Will DoorDash report 900 million or more total orders in Q4 2025? Feb 19 $15 +$2 +12%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 19 $29 +$1 +3%
Rainbow FDV above $100M one day after launch? Feb 09 $12 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 06 $21 +$2 +8%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 06 $25 +$2 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $189 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 87¢ $2,207 3d
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? SELL No 99¢ $24 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 38¢ $55 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 23¢ $33 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $2,585 4d
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $23 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $23 6d
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? BUY No 96¢ $23 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2,910 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2,933 10d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $32 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $22 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $2,803 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $24 15d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 97¢ $21 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $2,149 21d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $21 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $2,003 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $726 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $600 24d
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $21 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,867 26d
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap SELL No 93¢ $19 26d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 90¢ $153 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? BUY No 93¢ $1,592 29d
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,596 29d
Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? BUY No 89¢ $11 29d
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,600 29d
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? SELL Yes $0 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.21 · official $24.21 (match) · 147 history records