Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:36:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf3e…885c other 148 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%17W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% −$1
sports 24% −$1
politics 23% −$1
crypto 8% −$2
world 6% −$1
tech 5% $0
culture 4% −$3
economics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 3 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
all 147 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses17 / 130
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)147 / 148
History coverage159d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 95¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $39 −$1 -2%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 29 $41 $0 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 16 $39 $0 -1%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 18 $129 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 16 $132 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 16 $90 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 16 $94 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 16 $213 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 16 $46 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 16 $87 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 16 $70 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 16 $84 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 14 $83 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 14 $217 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 14 $120 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 14 $215 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 14 $224 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 14 $281 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 14 $86 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 13 $109 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 13 $48 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 13 $236 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Feb 13 $115 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 13 $103 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Feb 11 $85 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 11 $92 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 11 $131 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 11 $44 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 11 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 11 $91 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Feb 11 $91 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 11 $103 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Feb 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 08 $48 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 08 $2 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $38 1h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $38 13d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $39 13d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $41 21d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $41 21d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $39 35d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $39 35d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $42 121d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $42 121d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 93¢ $11 123d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 93¢ $28 123d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $39 123d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 95¢ $39 123d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 95¢ $39 123d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 93¢ $2 123d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 93¢ $2 123d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 95¢ $43 123d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 95¢ $43 123d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 123d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 123d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 123d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 123d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $40 123d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $40 123d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 123d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 96¢ $46 123d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $44 123d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $44 123d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $38 123d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $38 123d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.12 · official $38.12 (match) · 580 history records