Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:17:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AF 0xaf41…8aa5 crypto 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 613d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+1%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate92%37W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% +$2
crypto 40% −$1
sports 1% +$12
other 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 10 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 23 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 40 +0.5% -9.1% 92% 8% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 8% -8.9%
10% -17.8% 8% -17.6%
15% -25.7% 8% -25.6%
20% -33.0% 5% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

613d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses37 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage613d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 11 $36 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? Jun 08 $36 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? Jun 03 $36 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 28? Jun 01 $36 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? May 28 $36 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 22? May 27 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 16? May 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 14? May 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 8? May 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 30? May 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 22? Apr 29 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 20? Apr 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 15? Apr 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 10? Apr 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 10 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 3? Apr 08 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 26? Apr 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 18? Mar 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 26? Mar 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? Feb 24 $17 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 6? Feb 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 4? Feb 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on January 31? Feb 04 $35 $0 +1%
Will Meta (META) close above $560 end of December? Jan 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of December 1 above $90? Dec 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? Dec 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? Dec 04 $10 $0 +1%
Lakers vs. Warriors Nov 13 $12 +$12 +100%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 25 $883 +$7 +1%
Saints vs. Panthers Nov 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Tammy Baldwin" during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1? Nov 11 $16 −$10 -65%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 11 $612 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin above $69,000 on October 25? Oct 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Leicester win on 2024-10-25? Oct 28 $12 +$5 +47%
Chargers vs. Cardinals Oct 23 $8 +$10 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $36 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? BUY Yes 99¢ $36 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? BUY Yes 99¢ $36 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 28? BUY Yes 99¢ $36 25d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 98¢ $36 26d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 31d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 38d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 40d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 45d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 54d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 60d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $36 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 10? BUY No 99¢ $36 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $36 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $36 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $36 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $35 89d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 18? BUY No 100¢ $35 95d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 26? BUY No 100¢ $31 115d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? BUY No 98¢ $17 135d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 6? BUY No 100¢ $35 136d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 4? BUY No 100¢ $35 138d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on January 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $35 142d
Will Meta (META) close above $560 end of December? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 181d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.89 · official $35.89 (match) · 167 history records