Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:13:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf45…3543 crypto 1196 markets active 2d ago coverage 114d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 114d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,231 (-14%) realized −$1,231 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate63%748W / 448L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$130
14 days−$168
30 days−$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$867
sports 8% −$89
other 7% −$94
weather 3% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -18.9% -26.6% 46% 31% -26.9%
≤30d 160 -15.6% -23.7% 50% 33% -30.0%
≤90d 821 -5.9% -14.8% 59% 41% -21.9%
all 1196 -6.8% -15.7% 63% 41% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 41% -20.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 26% -28.2%
15% -31.1% 15% -35.2%
20% -37.9% 10% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,231
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses748 / 448
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1196 / 1196
History coverage114d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1196 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +42%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$4 +46%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +60%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +50%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +34%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$5 +186%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$4 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 2d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 2d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records