trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | May 12 | $36 | −$16 | -44% |
| Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? | May 04 | $3,702 | +$388 | +10% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee | Apr 29 | $49,700 | +$283 | +1% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m | Apr 29 | $12,182 | −$9,962 | -82% |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the e | Apr 25 | $168 | +$5 | +3% |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 31-April 6? | Apr 07 | $10,792 | +$166 | +2% |
| Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31? | Apr 02 | $116,834 | +$5,123 | +4% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee | Mar 24 | $650 | +$170 | +26% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee | Mar 18 | $16,456 | +$1,277 | +8% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m | Mar 18 | $76,435 | +$1,265 | +2% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me | Mar 16 | $9,727 | −$6,464 | -66% |
| US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | Feb 10 | $10,300 | −$375 | -4% |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Feb 10 | $2,026 | −$81 | -4% |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Feb 10 | $1,367 | −$59 | -4% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | Feb 03 | $559 | +$13 | +2% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | Feb 03 | $631 | +$18 | +3% |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 27-February 2? | Feb 02 | $43,701 | +$1,738 | +4% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 28 | $150,013 | +$9,394 | +6% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 12 | $24,830 | −$8,923 | -36% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 11 | -12.4% | -20.7% | 73% | 9% | -11.9% |
| all | 19 | -8.9% | -17.6% | 63% | 5% | -10.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -17.6% | 5% | -10.6% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -25.5% | 5% | -19.1% |
| 15% | -32.7% | 0% | -26.9% |
| 20% | -39.3% | 0% | -34.1% |