Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:13:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xaf46…0534
crypto · 62 markets active 2h ago
5.5score
+$509 +52%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$509 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$509
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses33 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage18d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 1 History 60 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$124
7 days+$131
14 days+$509
30 days+$509
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Dplus KIA 74¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
First Blood in Game 1? KT Rolster 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$7 +29%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$19 +122%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$93 +91%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 08 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $32 +$16 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 08 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 08 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 08 $16 +$9 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 08 $7 −$7 -96%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $6 +$9 +144%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $16 −$15 -94%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $20 +$20 +99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $10 +$9 +86%
First Blood in Game 1? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$5 +90%
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos Jun 05 $20 +$29 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 05 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 55% −$50
politics 23% +$394
other 15% +$113
sports 7% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY 33¢ $5 9h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 82¢ $34 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 65¢ $195 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $46 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $20 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $20 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $18 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $23 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +0.4% -9.1% 57% 52% +10.7%
≤30d 60 +0.1% -9.4% 55% 52% +40.6%
≤90d 60 +0.1% -9.4% 55% 52% +40.6%
all 60 +0.1% -9.4% 55% 52% +40.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 52% +40.6%
10% -18.1% 52% +27.1%
15% -26.0% 47% +14.9%
20% -33.3% 40% +3.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.01 · official $6.01 · 137 history records