Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:29:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AF 0xaf48…36c2 other 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$10,410 (+8%) realized +$10,455 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate80%12W / 3L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$7,852per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$169est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$20,183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$2,498
sports 14% +$7,669
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -0.6% -10.0% 80% 47% -1.4%
≤30d 15 -0.6% -10.0% 80% 47% -1.4%
≤90d 15 -0.6% -10.0% 80% 47% -1.4%
all 15 -0.6% -10.0% 80% 47% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 47% -1.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 20% -10.8%
15% -26.5% 13% -19.4%
20% -33.7% 7% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,330 vs −$1,915 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.78 per $1 lost it wins $2.78
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$20,183
Realized+$10,455
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses12 / 3
Est. fees paid−$169
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage4d
Avg bet$7,852
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia leading at halftime? No 96¢ 96¢ $19,436 $19,397 −$40 (-0%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Draw at halftime? No 76¢ 76¢ $791 $786 −$5 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10,476 +$512 +5%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 25 $1,109 +$65 +6%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 25 $1,182 +$217 +18%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam Jun 25 $99 +$138 +140%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5,375 −$5,375 -100%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 25 $2,946 +$714 +24%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $16,853 +$7,347 +44%
Switzerland to win the second half? Jun 24 $345 −$342 -99%
DR Congo leading at halftime? Jun 24 $23,955 +$3,145 +13%
Panama leading at halftime? Jun 24 $13,689 +$1,795 +13%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 23 $14,744 +$956 +6%
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? Jun 23 $9,511 +$589 +6%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 23 $1,236 +$164 +13%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $11,685 +$315 +3%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $28 −$27 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia leading at halftime? BUY No 96¢ $6,229 5m
Tunisia leading at halftime? BUY No 96¢ $1,627 15m
Tunisia leading at halftime? BUY No 96¢ $4,877 41m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $10,989 44m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Draw at halftime? BUY No 76¢ $797 49m
Curaçao leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $1,174 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $1,399 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 84¢ $1,182 4h
Tunisia leading at halftime? BUY No 96¢ $1,772 17h
Tunisia leading at halftime? BUY No 96¢ $4,954 17h
Curaçao leading at halftime? BUY No 94¢ $783 19h
Curaçao leading at halftime? BUY No 94¢ $326 19h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Team Novaq 41¢ $99 19h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 95¢ $10,476 19h
Czechia leading at halftime? BUY No 80¢ $531 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 49¢ $5,375 24h
Czechia leading at halftime? BUY No 80¢ $2,414 24h
Switzerland to win the second half? BUY No 65¢ $345 28h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $7,312 37h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $6,964 38h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $696 40h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $1,880 40h
DR Congo leading at halftime? BUY No 89¢ $2,671 45h
DR Congo leading at halftime? BUY No 88¢ $1,766 45h
DR Congo leading at halftime? BUY No 88¢ $1,236 46h
DR Congo leading at halftime? BUY No 88¢ $5,476 46h
DR Congo leading at halftime? BUY No 88¢ $4,239 46h
Panama leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $15,484 46h
Panama leading at halftime? BUY No 88¢ $3,974 2d
Panama leading at halftime? BUY No 88¢ $3,533 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,182.53 · official $20,172.38 (match) · 56 history records