Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:48:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xaf4a…cbda
other · 64 markets active 2h ago
4.0score
+$18 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$17 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses8 / 56
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage76d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 0 History 64 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 27 $23 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 26 $21 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 25 $35 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $98 $0 -0%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $112 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 16 $97 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 14 $96 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $93 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $157 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 04 $100 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $195 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 02 $96 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $90 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $194 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $96 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $94 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 20 $360 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $195 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $99 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $94 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 15 $173 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $201 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 14 $97 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $98 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $103 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $92 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $101 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $99 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $224 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $98 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $96 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $95 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 10 $96 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 10 $98 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 09 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 09 $97 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $8 +$5 +62%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $9 +$7 +79%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $9 +$7 +72%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $11 +$5 +48%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $66 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $66 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 07 $132 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 07 $71 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 48% +$7
politics 31% −$2
economics 13% −$1
sports 5% +$13
tech 2% $0
world 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 7h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $12 16d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $12 16d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $23 18d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $23 18d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $21 19d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $21 19d
Will Solana reach $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 19d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 20d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $42 21d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 22d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 22d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 23d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 23d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $17 25d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 25d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? BUY No 83¢ $15 25d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 25d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 25d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $96 29d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $97 30d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $95 30d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $96 30d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $92 31d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $93 31d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $90 40d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $90 40d
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $100 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 67% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 +1.8% -7.9% 27% 9% -9.1%
≤90d 64 +2.9% -6.9% 12% 8% -9.3%
all 64 +2.9% -6.9% 12% 8% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 8% -9.3%
10% -15.8% 6% -18.0%
15% -23.9% 6% -25.9%
20% -31.4% 5% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 170 history records