Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:29:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xaf4c…345e
crypto · 236 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$71 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$85 · open +$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$33
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses85 / 150
Open positions1
Markets (closed)235 / 236
History coverage124d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 235 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$39
14 days+$39
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 43¢ 74¢ $19 $33 +$14 (+71%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$15 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$17 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Mar 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Mar 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Mar 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Mar 05 $17 −$7 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Mar 04 $20 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Mar 04 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Mar 04 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Mar 04 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Mar 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Mar 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Mar 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Mar 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Mar 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Mar 03 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Mar 03 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Mar 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 17 $3 −$3 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 17 $4 −$3 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Feb 17 $4 −$3 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Feb 17 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Feb 17 $4 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Feb 17 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Feb 17 $3 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 16 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 16 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 16 $4 −$3 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 16 $4 −$3 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 16 $3 +$11 +433%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Feb 16 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 16 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 16 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 16 $2 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Feb 16 $4 −$4 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Feb 16 $5 −$4 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 15 $1 $0 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +20.3% +8.8% 73% 55% +27.0%
≤30d 11 +20.3% +8.8% 73% 55% +27.0%
≤90d 11 +20.3% +8.8% 73% 55% +27.0%
all 235 -10.7% -19.2% 36% 28% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 28% -16.8%
10% -26.9% 23% -24.7%
15% -34.0% 19% -32.0%
20% -40.4% 14% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.25 · official $21.94 · 656 history records