Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:33:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

AF 0xaf4e…bd80 sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,246 (+33%) realized +$1,262 · open −$16

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +77% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +54% what you keep after slip

Net edge+54%after slip

Net WR76%break-even

Win rate76%13W / 4L

Drawdown38%max

Avg bet$172per market

Trades / day4.8pace

Fees−$52est.

Kalshi-fit91%portable

Net worth$1,084now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +76%

net ROI/market (all)+59.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	+76.7%	+59.9%	76%	76%	+31.7%
≤30d	17	+76.7%	+59.9%	76%	76%	+31.7%
≤90d	17	+76.7%	+59.9%	76%	76%	+31.7%
all	17	+76.7%	+59.9%	76%	76%	+31.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+59.9%	76%	+31.7%
10%	+44.6%	76%	+19.1%
15%	+30.6%	76%	+7.6%
20%	+17.8%	59%	-2.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 25% · top 2 38% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +77% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +74% → late +79% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$147 vs −$176 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.72 per $1 lost it wins $2.72

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$1,084

Realized+$1,262

Unrealized−$16

Win rate (resolved)76%

Wins / losses13 / 4

Est. fees paid−$52

Open positions5

Markets (closed)17 / 22

History coverage5d

Avg bet$172

Trades / day4.8

Drawdown38%

Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Over	50¢	50¢	$300	$297	−$3 (-1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners	Over	68¢	67¢	$300	$295	−$5 (-2%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score	No	56¢	56¢	$200	$198	−$2 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Over	54¢	54¢	$200	$198	−$2 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$100	$96	−$4 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$102	+$243	+238%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Jun 16	$305	−$305	-100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$203	−$200	-99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$102	−$100	-98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 15	$102	+$486	+474%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score	Jun 15	$202	+$137	+67%
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 14	$102	+$98	+97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 7.5 Corners	Jun 14	$404	+$176	+44%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$101	+$91	+90%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$102	+$111	+109%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	Jun 14	$101	+$44	+44%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	Jun 13	$153	+$213	+140%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	Jun 13	$265	−$99	-37%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	Jun 12	$202	+$137	+67%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Jun 12	$42	+$58	+140%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 12	$101	+$91	+89%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$70	+$30	+44%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	56¢	$203	1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	12¢	$103	1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	50¢	$304	1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners	BUY Over	68¢	$303	1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	54¢	$203	1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$102	24h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	BUY Uruguay	41¢	$305	25h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	56¢	$203	25h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	50¢	$102	25h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	17¢	$102	47h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	59¢	$202	47h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 7.5 Corners	BUY Over	69¢	$404	2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Germany	50¢	$102	2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	52¢	$101	2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	47¢	$102	2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	BUY Morocco	69¢	$101	2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	41¢	$153	2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	40¢	$166	3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	62¢	$265	3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	59¢	$202	3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$192	4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	52¢	$101	4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	69¢	$70	5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	BUY Mexico	41¢	$42	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,083.73 · official $1,083.73 (match) · 38 history records