Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:02:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf4f…7b3d politics 137 markets active 0h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$64 (-0%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 127L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$16
other 38% −$13
sports 12% −$36
tech 4% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 105 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 136 -1.6% -10.9% 7% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 2% -9.7%
10% -19.5% 1% -18.4%
15% -27.2% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage132d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $29 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $272 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $215 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $383 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $224 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $235 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $217 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $218 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $442 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $233 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $218 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $251 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $204 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $195 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $895 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $210 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $381 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $235 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $253 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $210 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $241 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $6 $0 +1%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $377 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $202 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $402 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $208 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $180 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $378 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $197 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $189 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $266 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $206 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $280 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $432 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $258 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $234 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $279 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $212 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 26 $252 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $266 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $250 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $219 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $757 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 27m
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $34 2d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $29 6d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 14d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $272 22d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $272 24d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $215 24d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $215 25d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 25d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 26d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $224 26d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $224 27d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $235 27d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $235 27d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $217 27d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $217 28d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 28d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $218 29d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $222 30d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $222 30d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $233 30d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $233 30d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $230 30d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $230 30d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $242 31d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $242 32d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 32d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $218 32d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $251 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.98 · official $43.98 (match) · 414 history records