Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:22:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AF 0xaf5b…5d3a sports 919 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,478 (+1%) realized +$1,340 · open +$138
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate66%594W / 312L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Fees−$909est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,934now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 55d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$2,706
crypto 43% −$3,232
other 5% +$301
weather 1% −$479
politics 0% −$11
world 0% −$294
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -5.8% -14.7% 66% 66% -8.5%
≤30d 665 -6.6% -15.5% 63% 57% -9.5%
≤90d 906 -2.7% -12.0% 66% 60% -10.0%
all 906 -2.7% -12.0% 66% 60% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 60% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 44% -18.6%
15% -28.1% 27% -26.5%
20% -35.2% 16% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$184 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$1,934
Realized+$1,340
Unrealized+$138
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses594 / 312
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$909
Open positions11
Markets (closed)906 / 919
History coverage55d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 906 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) DR Congo 72¢ 92¢ $500 $635 +$135 (+27%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 72¢ 76¢ $500 $524 +$24 (+5%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 62¢ $400 $335 −$65 (-16%)
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 30¢ 52¢ $100 $173 +$73 (+73%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $50 $68 +$18 (+36%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $50 $37 −$12 (-25%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+26%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-32%)
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 4¢ $50 $12 −$38 (-75%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $9 −$4 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 255 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $503 +$146 +29%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $317 +$125 +40%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $304 −$300 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $402 +$80 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $206 +$151 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $207 +$189 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $203 +$44 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $207 +$197 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -96%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $402 +$98 +24%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $503 +$130 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 16 $503 −$500 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5) Jun 16 $203 +$142 +70%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $403 +$152 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 +$45 +90%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $504 +$172 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $204 +$75 +37%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $174 +$78 +45%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $302 −$300 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $303 +$120 +40%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $352 +$84 +24%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $403 +$110 +27%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $202 +$103 +51%
Spread: New York Liberty (-13.5) Jun 14 $93 +$66 +70%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 14 $403 +$104 +26%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $402 +$74 +18%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $403 +$145 +36%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $82 −$81 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $403 +$145 +36%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $404 +$230 +57%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $202 +$137 +67%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Jun 14 $303 +$126 +42%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 14 $303 −$300 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $202 +$76 +38%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $502 +$73 +14%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $202 +$106 +52%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $202 +$72 +36%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $129 +$80 +62%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $402 −$400 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $504 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 72¢ $504 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $503 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $303 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $15 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $203 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $206 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $207 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $203 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $207 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 21h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 80¢ $503 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $402 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $101 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $101 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $201 23h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $20 27h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $503 27h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 58¢ $203 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $204 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $303 45h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $101 45h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $174 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $51 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $504 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,933.52 · official $1,954.35 · 2210 history records